Two years of Congress govt in Karnataka: If elections were held today...

New Delhi: Marking the completion of two years of the Congress government in Karnataka under chief minister Siddaramaiah, People’s Pulse Political Research Organisation, in collaboration with Codemo Technologies, conducted a survey on governance in the southern state. 

Engaging 10,481 respondents across rural and urban areas, the survey evaluated public satisfaction, the government’s progress on its social welfare agenda and key performance metrics. 

The findings reveal significant anti-incumbency against the Congress, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gaining substantial public support. This ground report presents a detailed analysis of the survey results, enriched with contextual insights, to assess the Congress government’s performance and its prospects for the remaining term.

The pulse of Karnataka was conducted over one month, from April 17 to May 18, 2025, covering all regions of the state. A representative sample of 10,481 respondents was surveyed through ground-level interactions, ensuring diversity in gender, age, caste, religion, and geographic location in order to mirror the reality on the ground. 

The survey assessed public opinion on governance, electoral preferences, welfare scheme implementation, leadership favorability and the caste census report. Seat projections are based on the 224-seat Karnataka legislative assembly, requiring 113 seats for a majority. Data was analysed to provide accurate projections and insights into voter sentiment.

Shifting Public Sentiment and Electoral Prospects

The survey highlighted a significant decline in public approval for the Congress government over its first two years, driven by rising inflation and delays in welfare schemes’ implementation. If assembly elections were held today, the BJP is projected to secure 51% of the vote share, translating into 136–159 seats, while the Congress would garner 40.3%, securing 62–82 seats. 

The Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)] is expected to win 5% of the votes, resulting in 3–6 seats. 

The BJP holds a 10.7% vote share advantage over the Congress, signaling strong anti-incumbency. Since 1985, no ruling party in Karnataka has secured a full majority in subsequent elections, a trend likely to continue based on current projections.

Influence of National Security Developments

The Pahalgam incident and Operation Sindoor, have bolstered the BJP support, with a 1–1.5% increase in voter backing after May 10, following the ceasefire with Pakistan. The BJP’s narrative of strong national security policy has resonated well with voters, enhancing its electoral prospects.

Electoral Dynamics Since 2023

In the 2023 assembly elections, the Congress secured 42.88% of the vote share (135 seats), the BJP 36% (66 seats), and JD(S) 13.29% (19 seats). The current survey indicates a significant reversal, with the Congress facing intense anti-incumbency, losing ground to the BJP.

Voter Confidence in Future Leadership

When asked which party is likely to form the next government, 55% of respondents favored the BJP, 39.1% the Congress, 3.6% JD(S), and 2.3% others, reflecting a clear public preference for the BJP.

Diverse Voter Preferences Across Demographics

Gender

Women Voters: The BJP leads with 48.4% support compared to 44.6% for the Congress, a 3.8% advantage. Despite the Congress’s emphasis on women’s welfare schemes, voters prioritise economic stability, limiting the schemes’ electoral impact.

Men Voters: The BJP commands 51.9% support, compared to 38.9% for the Congress, a 13% lead.

Age Groups

Young Voters (18–25 years): The BJP holds a 24% lead over the Congress, reflecting strong youth support.

Other Age Groups: The BJP secures 48–51% support, while the Congress garners 42–44%.

Rural versus Urban Areas

Rural Areas: The BJP leads by 13.5%, with JD(S) projected at 5.7%, driven by dissatisfaction with partial loan waiver implementation.

Urban Areas: The BJP maintains a 6.6% lead, fueled by frustration over rising service charges.

Farmers

The BJP secures 53.9% support among farmers, compared to 37.4% for the Congress. The Congress’ 2023 farmer-focused campaign has not sustained support, as only 60% of eligible farmers received promised loan waivers by March 2025, fueling rural discontent.

Religious and Caste Dynamics

Hindu Voters: The BJP enjoys 58.5% support, while the Congress is limited to 32%.

Muslim Voters: The Congress dominates with 85.5% support, compared to 9.3% for the BJP.

Caste Groups:

Lingayat: The BJP commands 78.9% support, bolstered by strategic alliances with community leaders.

Kuruba: The Congress leads with 54.6%, strengthened by Siddaramaiah’s community ties.

Vokkaliga: The BJP secures 47.8%, JD(S) 24.6%, and Congress 22.9%.

Scheduled Castes (SC): The Congress leads by 9.8% (51.5% vs. 41.7%).

Other Backward Classes (OBC): The BJP leads by 14%.

Scheduled Tribes (ST): The BJP leads by 22%.

Leadership Popularity Amid Political Shifts

Siddaramaiah remains the most preferred leader for chief minister, with 29.2% support, followed by deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar (10.7%), JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy (7.6%), former BJP Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa (5.5%), and Karnataka BJP President BY Vijayendra (5.2%). Siddaramaiah’s personal popularity is a key asset for the Congress, despite the party’s declining support.

Public Evaluation of Governance

Public opinion on the Congress government’s performance is mixed:

Positive: 48.4% rated the performance as “good” or “very good”.

Negative: 32% rated it as “poor” or “very poor”.

Neutral: Approximately 20% described it as “average.”

Comparison with BJP Government: 48% believe the Congress government has performed better than the previous BJP government, though 55.2% of BJP voters and 54.7% of JD(S) voters disagree.

National Leadership Preferences

For the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, 59.1% of respondents favored Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, followed by Rahul Gandhi (17.3%), Mallikarjun Kharge (2.3%), and Yogi Adityanath (10.9%). Among Congress voters, 40.6% supported Rahul Gandhi, but 37% favored Modi, an unexpected crossover. BJP and JD(S) voters overwhelmingly (73%) supported Modi. The central government’s performance received 66.3% approval, including 59.3% from Congress voters, driven by infrastructure development and economic policies resonating with Karnataka voters.

Perceptions of the Caste Census

The Congress government’s caste census report has elicited varied responses:

Support: 26.3% fully trust the report, viewing it as a step toward social equity.

Skepticism: 35% distrust it, and 16% trust it partially, reflecting methodological concerns.

Congress Voters: 34.6% fully trust, 21.7% distrust, and 16.4% trust partially.

BJP and JD(S) Voters: 43.3% and 50%, respectively, distrust the report.

Caste Breakdown: 50% of Lingayat and Vokkaliga voters (representing 37 and 23 MLAs, respectively) distrust the report, citing unscientific methodology, while 33% of Kuruba and 45.1% of Madiga voters trust it, seeing it as a tool for representation. The census has sparked controversy, with dominant communities questioning its accuracy, while marginalised groups view it positively.

Impact of Five Guarantee Schemes

The Congress government allocated Rs 51,034 crore in the 2025–26 budget for its five guarantee schemes, a cornerstone of its 2023 manifesto:

Gruha Lakshmi: Rs 28,608 crore for ₹2,000 monthly payments to 1.22 crore women.

Gruha Jyothi: Rs 10,100 crore for free electricity (up to 200 units) for 1.62 crore consumers.

Shakti: Rs 5,300 crore for free bus travel for over 50 lakh women monthly.

Yuva Nidhi: Rs 286 crore for unemployment benefits for 2.58 crore youth.

Anna Bhagya: Cash transfers in lieu of five kilograms of free rice for 4.21 crore beneficiaries.

Public response varies:

Gruha Lakshmi: 45.4% of beneficiaries strongly support the scheme, reflecting its popularity among women.

Yuva Nidhi: Only 2% support it, indicating limited impact among youth.

Awareness: 97% of voters are aware of the schemes, demonstrating effective outreach.

Implementation challenges, including beneficiary selection errors and payment delays due to verification issues, have led to public criticism. The partial implementation of farmer loan waivers has further eroded rural support.

Progress in Other Policy Areas

The government has prioritised education, health, and land reforms:

Education: Rs 8,000 crore for government schools and ₹500 crore for OBC and minority scholarships.

Health: Health insurance for one crore beneficiaries and development of 200 Primary Health Centers.

Land Rights: One lakh land titles distributed to rural families, granting ownership rights.

However, rising prices of essentials (milk, water, electricity, fuel, public transport) and corruption allegations against the chief minister, ministers, and MLAs have damaged the government’s reputation. A 10% electricity tariff hike in early 2025 sparked urban protests, exacerbating anti-incumbency among middle-class voters.

Challenges in Party Cohesion

The Congress faces internal factionalism, particularly between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, weakening its electoral prospects. These rifts have hindered the party’s ability to counter the BJP effectively. The BJP also struggles with groupism and lacks a clear chief ministerial candidate, contributing to Congress leaders dominating chief ministerial preferences (Siddaramaiah at 29.2%, Shivakumar at 10.7%). The absence of a prominent BJP leader contrasts with Siddaramaiah’s sustained personal popularity, providing the Congress with a strategic advantage despite its challenges.

The Pulse of Karnataka reveals a challenging landscape for the Congress government, marked by declining public support, implementation lapses, rising costs, corruption allegations, and internal rifts. The BJP has capitalised on this discontent, gaining traction across rural, urban, and demographic segments. However, Siddaramaiah’s personal popularity remains a key strength, offering the Congress a potential lifeline.