Urban sprawl in Delhi-NCR set to cover 28 pc of land by 2033

New Delhi, Aug 23 (PTI) Built-up areas in Delhi-NCR are projected to increase from 3,386.76 sq km in 2023 to 3,868.28 sq km by 2033, according to a new study, indicating about 28 per cent of the region will be urbanised, an addition of 481.5 sq km or about 14 per cent over 2023 levels.

Built-up areas are land covered by houses, roads, factories and other concrete structures.

The research, titled 'Forecasting urban expansion in Delhi-NCR: Integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and Markov chain simulation for sustainable urban planning', was published in GeoJournal and carried out by professors from Jawaharlal Nehru University's School of Environmental Sciences along with other scholars.

It analysed land use and land cover changes between 2003 and 2023 and made projections for 2033.

According to the study, agricultural land is expected to reduce by 2033 to 9,153.1 sq km, which will cover about 66.5 per cent of the study area.

This represents a decline of 477.6 square kilometres compared to 2023. Forest cover may reduce slightly from 282.9 sq km to 281.3 sq km.

Water bodies are likely to go down from 101.09 sq km to 100.04 sq km. Open land could shrink from 24.11 sq km to 21.83 sq km. Scrubland may rise only by about one sq km, reaching 329.5 sq km.

The study said central Delhi has little space left for horizontal expansion. The outer peripheries in the north, west, east and south-west are seeing most of the growth.

It said these areas have witnessed farmland and scrubland giving way to residential colonies, industrial belts and transport networks.

A prominent transformation of scrubland to urbanised areas was recorded in the south, west, south-west and north. The study said central and eastern Delhi saw only slight changes.

Between 2003 and 2023, built-up areas rose from 1,893.64 sq km or 13.77 per cent of the region to 3,386.76 sq km or 24.62 per cent.

That was an increase of nearly 1,500 sq km in two decades. The sharpest rise took place between 2003 and 2013, when built-up areas grew by 1,011 sq km or 53 per cent. From 2013 to 2023, the increase was 482 sq km or 16.6 per cent.

According to the study, agricultural land fell from 10,921.8 sq km or 79.4 per cent in 2003 to 9,630.7 sq km or 70 per cent in 2023.

This was a loss of about 1,300 sq km. Forest cover reduced from 415.4 sq km to 282.9 sq km, a fall of 132 sq km or nearly one-third.

Water bodies declined from 139.25 sq km to 101.09 sq km, a 27 per cent fall. Open land went down from 65.17 sq km to 24.11 sq km, a 63 per cent decline. Scrubland dipped slightly till 2013 but recovered to 328.5 sq km in 2023.

The study said agriculture lost 847.8 sq km in the first decade of 2003 to 2013 and 443.3 sq km in the second decade from 2013 to 2023.

Forests shrank by 118 sq km in the first period and another 14 sq km in the second. Open land reduced by 39 sq km or 62 per cent between 2013 and 2023 alone.

According to the study, while the Forest Survey of India reported that Delhi's forest cover rose from 176 sq km in 2003 to 195 sq km in 2021 because of plantations, its own findings showed a decline in Gurugram and Noida where natural forests have been converted into settlements, industry and farmland.

The study found that the rise in built-up areas at the cost of agriculture and open land was most visible in the north and west of Delhi-NCR.

For its analysis, the researchers divided the region into two zones. Zone 1 covers up to 30 km from the centre of Delhi and has a dense population and established infrastructure.

Zone 2 is beyond 30 km and is seeing rapid expansion. The study said the maximum change in land cover came from agriculture being converted to built-up areas between 2003 and 2013. Growth was far more intense in Zone 2 than in Zone 1.

The study used satellite images of Delhi, Gurugram, Faridabad, Sonipat, Jhajjar, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Ghaziabad covering 13,754 sq km.

The images were taken in May for each year to avoid cloud cover and haze during the pre-monsoon season.

Six land categories were mapped, including built-up, agriculture, forest, scrub, water bodies and open land.

The projections for 2033 were made using a Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network model which the study said matched 2023 land cover with nearly 90 per cent accuracy.

The authors said the rapid spread of concrete-dominated areas at the cost of farmland and forests could harm biodiversity, water resources and food security.

They said Delhi's expanding built-up cover has already added to higher land surface temperatures.

The study recommended that policymakers use such data in the city's master plan so that future growth is in line with sustainability goals under the UN's Sustainable Development Goal 11 on 'Sustainable Cities and Communities'. PTI SGV KSS KSS