With two days to Bihar verdict, all eyes on Nitish’s fate and Tejashwi’s challenge

Patna: With the dust having settled on an acrimonious campaign, followed by a record turn-out in Bihar assembly polls, all eyes are now on the counting of votes scheduled on Friday.

The outcome will make it clear whether Nitish Kumar, the JD(U) president who is also the longest serving Chief Minister, enjoys enough public support to enjoy a record fifth consecutive tenure or the people have opted for a change.

Exit polls have been nearly unanimous in predicting a clean sweep for the NDA, of which the JD(U) is a part, much to the annoyance of the opposition INDIA bloc.

Tejashwi Yadav, the young RJD leader whom the opposition coalition has named its "Chief Ministerial candidate", rubbished these predictions and cited past goof-ups in the media like exaggerated reports of Indian armed forces' action during Operation Sindoor and, more recently, unverified reports of "death" of legendary actor Dharmendra who was convalescing at a Mumbai hospital.

Congress' media and publicity chairman Pawan Khera, whose party is the second largest constituent of INDIA bloc in Bihar, where it goes by the name "Mahagathbandhan" (grand alliance) believes that the high turnout was proof that people have voted for a change.

"I have been in Bihar for long during the elections. I have felt the pulse of the people. They have voted for a change. The high turnout was an expression of their anger against unemployment and corruption for which they wanted to punish the NDA. We are going to win and form the next government", Khera told PTI.

CPI(ML) Liberation general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya, whose party is the third largest INDIA bloc constituent, voiced a similar opinion, saying "our ground reports and the high voter turnout suggest Bihar has voted for change".

"Elections in India are now a serial hurdle race. The people of Bihar who succeeded in crossing the SIR hurdle and managed to protect and use their votes should now overcome the third hurdle and ensure accurate counting of votes," added Bhattacharya.

Meanwhile, the atmosphere was upbeat in the NDA camp, with BJP leaders already placing orders for massive quantities of sweets to be distributed on what they already foresee as the "day of victory".

"The people voted for "vikas" (development) which only the combined leadership of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar can provide. Exit polls are reflecting the public sentiment though we believe the scale of victory will be bigger than what has been projected," said Nityanand Rai, Union minister and former state BJP president.

Senior JD(U) leader Shravan Kumar, who held the rural development portfolio in the outgoing government, also predicted a victory for the NDA, but with a difference.

"The JD(U) is all set to regain its status of the numero uno party in the state. My prediction is that we are going to win not less than 65-70 seats. I do not set much store by exit polls but I feel the NDA will have a comfortable majority, with a tally of 130-135", said the minister, a decades old associate of the CM, belonging to the same Kurmi caste and hailing from the supremo's native district of Nalanda.

The NDA in Bihar comprises altogether five parties, though a bulk of seats, in the 243-strong assembly, were contested by JD(U) and BJP, both of which fielded candidates in 101 constituencies each.

JD(U)'s Shravan Kumar, who himself hopes to retain the Nalanda seat, which he has been winning on the trot since 1995, said, "Although it is beyond doubt that the Chief Minister has a goodwill that is unmatched, the spurt in voter turnout could be because of the enthusiasm shown by women voters following the launch of the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana".

The scheme, which was launched a few weeks before polls were announced, leading to allegations from the opposition that it was an instance of "bribing the voters", aims at promoting entrepreneurship among women.

"More than one crore women have already received, through direct cash transfer, a sum of Rs 10,000. This scheme, besides other pro-women measures adopted by the Chief Minister, over the years, has clinched the deal in our favour", said Kumar.

Another senior JD(U) leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said, "The results will come as a shock not just to our opponents but also to our allies who have been far from reliable".

He added: "Our cadres got alerted that a conspiracy was underway when Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor, whom we regard as BJP's B team, began claiming that JD(U)'s tally will fall below 25. So our grassroots workers girded up their loins and the results will be there for all to see".

Somewhat similar is the take of Vidyarthi Vikas, Assistant Professor at Patna-based think tank A N Sinha Institute of Social Sciences, and a key observer of the state's politics.

"In my view, the two parties which will come out with flying colours are RJD and JD(U). This may sound paradoxical but it is steeped in reality. RJD will gain because of its promise of restoring old pension scheme. Bihar is home to a very large population which depends on pension drawing former government servants who voted for the Mahagathbandhan for this reason", said Vidyarthi.

He added that JD(U) could have suffered because law and order is not what it used to be in the first five years of Nitish Kumar's rule, and erosion of political authority has led to bureaucratic high-handedness over the years.

"But the BJP shot itself in the foot by dithering on announcement of the JD(U) supremo as Chief Ministerial candidate," he said.