WHO estimates 47 lakhs COVID-19-linked deaths in India; incorrect says government

India has strongly objected to the use of mathematical models by the World Health Organization (WHO) for projecting excess mortality estimates linked to the coronavirus pandemic in view of the availability of authentic data, "validity and robustness of the models used and methodology of data collection are questionable," the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said.

In a report released Thursday, WHO said between January 2020 and December 2021, there were 4.7 million "excess" Covid deaths in India -- the maximum number that's 10 times the official figures and almost a third of Covid deaths globally. The global figure, according to the report, was 15 million -- more than double the official figure of 6 million.

In 2020, India recorded 4,74,806 deaths as excess -- meaning over and above normal -- under the Civil Registration System. But as per WHO, for India, the cumulative excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (mean) estimated by the WHO is 47,40,894.

"India has consistently questioned WHO's own admission that data in respect of seventeen Indian states was obtained from some websites and media reports and was used in their mathematical model," the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said.

"This reflects a statistically unsound and scientifically questionable methodology of data collection for making excess mortality projections in case of India," the statement added. "Despite India's objection to the process, methodology, and outcome of this modeling exercise, WHO has released the excess mortality estimates without adequately addressing India's concerns," the ministry said.

The Indian government on Tuesday published the CRS (Civil Registration System) report 2020 which provides accurate estimates emanating from the ground, certified and validated by the district and the state administration.

In case of registered deaths, the number has gone up from 76.4 lakh in 2019 to 81.2 lakhs in 2020, an increase of 6.2 percent, the RGI’s report 'Vital Statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System' for 2020 said.

"Now that actual count of excess deaths from all the causes is available, there is no rationale for using modeling-driven estimates based on pure conjectures and assumptions," NITI Aayog member V K Paul told PTI.

In a technical note for India, WHO said the “estimates may not be regarded as the national statistics officially produced by India due to differences arising from the data and methods used by WHO.” It noted that the information from the Civil Registration System (CRS) in India for 2020 was made publicly available by the Registrar General of India (RGI) on May 3, 2022, in a report and that the information published in the report is being carefully examined and will be taken into consideration in revisions of the estimates.

WHO also said they chose the mathematical model as many countries "still lack the capacity for reliable mortality surveillance and therefore do not collect and generate the data needed to calculate excess mortality".

The country's top health experts including ICMR Director General Balram Bhargava, NITI Aayog Member (Health) V K Paul, and AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria on Thursday, questioned the modeling methodology used by the WHO and rejected the report terming it as untenable and unfortunate.

Dr. Guleria raised objection, to the WHO report and gave three broad reasons for that, saying WHO has not used India's robust system of births and deaths registration data which is released by CRS, secondly data that WHO has used is more on hearsay evidence from media and unconfirmed sources which is questionable and to do modeling on that data is not correct and unscientific. Lastly, Dr. Guleria raised the point of the Indian government being liberal in offering compensation to people who have died from COVID-19, so even if there were excess Covid-related deaths, they would have been recorded because people...would have come forward for compensation.