India in a world of fewer babies: Preparing for the coming demographic shift

New Delhi: Global birth rates have changed dramatically, telling a captivating story. In the 1970s, Mexican women could have had seven children; by 2014, they averaged two. The lowest fertility rate in the world is 0.75 children per woman in South Korea. A recent report in the journal Nature (August 2025) called this occurrence the "baby bust," describing a demographic shift that caused a global population peak and decrease within decades. 

India first appears to defy this tendency. Over 1.4 billion people make India the world's most populous nation, surpassing China. Its population is expected to grow until the early 2060s, reaching 1.7 billion. Behind these figures are the same dynamics: Indian women now have two children per woman, down from six in the 1950s. Southern and western regions and northern states have slipped below the replacement rate needed to sustain population levels. 
These demographics raise two important questions about India's future. How would a decrease in global fertility affect India's development? What should India do to move from rapid population growth to demographic stability? 

From Population Control to Demographic Dividend

India has spent decades concerned about unrestrained population growth. The assertive family planning initiatives of the 1970s engendered enduring anguish. By the 2000s, the country had reinterpreted dropping birth rates as a "demographic dividend," perceiving its substantial working-age population as a potential catalyst for economic growth, contingent upon the creation of employment, the improvement of education, and the advancement of women's involvement.
This demographic advantage, however, is time-limited. 

The aforementioned Nature study indicates that diminishing fertility frequently denotes "dysfunctional systems and institutions." India is already exhibiting indications of these systemic vulnerabilities. The economy inadequately generates ample possibilities for its millions of educated youth. Urban dwelling has become prohibitively expensive for several individuals. Access to high-quality healthcare and education necessitates substantial financial resources. Moreover, enduring gender disparities result in women bearing unequal childcare obligations, hence affecting decisions on family size.

Kerala: A Preview of India's Demographic Future

Kerala gives a fascinating picture of India's future. Kerala, India's most socially progressive state, led population transition. Birth rates began declining in the 1970s and fell below replacement levels by the early 1990s, ahead of the national trend. Kerala has a fertility rate of 1.7, similar to Europe. Despite its success, this demographic transition has created new obstacles. Kerala has the greatest rate of population ageing in India, with one in six residents over 60. One in five may be affected by 2031. Age-related chronic ailments are straining the state's once-excellent healthcare infrastructure.

The economic effects are apparent. Kerala relies on migration to send its youth to Gulf countries and Europe, and import labour from other Indian states due to a shrinking youth workforce. Remittances sustain older people in many rural settlements, but they lack family's social and emotional support. 

International Experiences: Effective and Ineffective Approaches

Nations across the globe have tested various strategies to boost birth rates. Australia introduced financial incentives for new parents. Hungary created cash rewards linked to motherhood. However, as the Nature research indicates, these measures typically only shift when people have children rather than convincing them to have more children overall. More troubling, such approaches risk framing childbearing as a national obligation, potentially compromising women's reproductive choices.

The Nordic region demonstrates a more promising approach. These countries have invested heavily in childcare infrastructure, promoted workplace gender equality, and established generous parental leave policies that both parents can share. These initiatives have helped moderate fertility decline. Crucially, these policies enhance quality of life for all families, whether they choose to have one child or several. For India, with its predominantly informal economy and limited social safety nets, these examples offer valuable insights for policy development.

Global Lessons: What Works and What Doesn't

Countries worldwide have implemented many ways to enhance birth rates. Australia implemented financial incentives for new parents. Hungary instituted financial incentives associated with childbearing. Nevertheless, as the Nature research indicates, these measurements generally only alter when individuals have children, rather than persuading them to increase their overall number of children. Moreover, such approaches may frame childbirth as a national duty, possibly undermining women's reproductive autonomy.


The Nordic region (countries and territories in Northern Europe and the North Atlantic.) exhibits a more advantageous methodology. These nations have significantly invested in childcare infrastructure, advanced workplace gender equality, and instituted generous parental leave laws that both parents share. These activities have contributed to the moderation of fertility decline. These regulations significantly improve the quality of life for all families, regardless of whether they opt for one child or multiple children. For India, which is characterised by a primarily informal economy and insufficient social safety nets, these instances provide significant insights for policy formulation.

Prepare for Silver Tsunami

India's elderly population will be its biggest demographic concern. Each fifth Indian will be beyond 60 by mid-century. This change will heavily impact pensions, healthcare, and family support networks. Extended family cared for ageing relatives, but urban migration and changing lifestyles weakened these informal support systems. 
However, population ageing offers opportunities and difficulties. 

According to Nature, 70-year-olds now have the mental capacity of 50-year-olds from prior generations. With breakthroughs in healthcare, India's elderly could continue working, caring for others, or organising communities. Strategic policies that extend working years, support lifelong education, and encourage elderly participation in society could turn ageing into a resource.

A future with declining birth rates need not be pessimistic. Population declines may reduce environmental stress, carbon emissions, and per-child education and development. Addressing major environmental issues and reducing population growth in India may help connect economic growth with environmental conservation.

To realise these benefits, a resilient and equitable economic structure is needed. Neglecting birth rates may aggravate social inequality since a shrinking workforce must support growing dependents. However, environmental degradation and societal instability may worsen. 

Demographer Stuart Gietel-Basten told Nature, “Declining fertility is only a disaster if you don’t adapt.” We can improve our economic and social systems by considering caring as valued work, making housing and childcare cheap, creating businesses that respect family life, and creating societies where hope, not anxiety, defines the future. 
Why not ask, “How do we create societies worth raising children in?” instead of “How do we convince people to have more children?” 

Families may have more children if they feel financially, socially, and emotionally supported. Even if they don't, humans can live more sustainably. 
The baby bust did not destroy humanity. It’s a mirror. It shows our priorities, disparities, and worries. If we use our imagination rather than panic, decreased fertility could be an opportunity to create a world where fewer people live fuller lives.

(Dr. Biju Dharmapalan is  the Dean -Academic Affairs, Garden City University, Bangalore  and an adjunct faculty at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore.)

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