Trump’s tariff gamble: How 50% duty on India’s Russian oil imports shook global diplomacy

New Delhi: When US President Donald Trump admitted on Fox & Friends that his 50% tariff on Indian purchases of Russian oil “caused a rift,” he wasn’t exaggerating. The move has unsettled Washington’s closest strategic partnership in Asia, rattled global energy markets, and drawn sharp reactions from Moscow to Brussels.

For Trump, it was a “big deal”, a demonstration that he was willing to take bold measures to cripple Russia’s energy trade. For India, it was a reminder that even “incredible friendships” come with tough costs. For the rest of the world, it was another shockwave in an already fragile oil market.

The Modi factor: Between friendship and friction

Trump has often boasted of his personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling their bond “incredible.” But the tariff episode highlights the limits of personal diplomacy.

India has defended its oil ties with Russia as a matter of energy security and national sovereignty, calling the tariffs “unjustified and unreasonable.” With one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, New Delhi cannot afford disruptions in affordable energy supplies.

While US officials, including ambassador-designate Sergio Gor, stress that negotiations toward a broader trade deal are “not that far apart,” the friction underscores how quickly friendship can be tested when interests collide.

Winners and losers in the energy game

Every major actor sees something different in this tariff gamble.

Russia: Bruised but opportunistic. Moscow condemned the tariffs as “an attack on sovereign trade,” but may now deepen energy cooperation with China, offering India steeper discounts to keep it hooked.

China: A silent winner. As India faces higher import costs, Beijing could further entrench itself as Russia’s top crude buyer, securing favourable long-term deals.

Europe: Nervous spectators. While glad to see tougher US action against Moscow, European leaders worry about price volatility spilling into their already fragile energy markets.

OPEC: Watching with unease. The cartel fears that a tariff war may distort global demand patterns, forcing members to recalibrate output.

The biggest loser, some analysts argue, could be global market stability. Oil traders are already reporting sharper swings in Brent crude prices as buyers and sellers scramble to readjust.

The Russia card: Trump's tough message

Trump framed the tariffs not as an anti-India move, but as a broader strike against Moscow’s energy leverage.

“India is purchasing oil from Russia, so I imposed a 50% tariff on them. That’s a big deal and it causes a rift with India,” he said.

In his telling, Russia’s energy dominance is “more a European problem than ours.” Yet his own strategy underscores Washington’s dilemma: how to curb Moscow without alienating key partners like India, who rely on Russian oil.

NATO, but not New Delhi

Trump recently wrote an open letter to NATO allies, urging them to stop buying Russian oil. The omission of India was conspicuous. Given his frequent criticism of New Delhi’s energy links with Moscow, the silence was puzzling, and perhaps deliberate.

Diplomats suggest that while Trump wants to appear tough on Russia, he also knows that alienating India too far risks undermining US strategy in the Indo-Pacific, where New Delhi is seen as an indispensable counterweight to China.

Strategic stakes: Beyond oil

The tariffs go beyond economics; they strike at the heart of the US-India strategic partnership. Over the past decade, the two nations have strengthened ties through the Quad alliance with Japan and Australia, expanding defence cooperation, including joint exercises as well as arms sales, and technology and trade collaborations in semiconductors, AI, and clean energy.

A trade war risks slowing this momentum. For Washington, losing trust in New Delhi would weaken its Indo-Pacific strategy. For India, it could trigger greater hedging toward Russia and China, complicating US plans to build a united front against Beijing.

Trump's boast of conflict resolution

In his TV appearance, Trump claimed to have resolved “seven conflicts,” including disputes between India and Pakistan, and even in Africa’s Congo and Rwanda. The claims drew scepticism, as most of these conflicts remain unresolved.

The remark, however, fits into his broader narrative: that he is a deal-maker unafraid of hard choices. The oil tariffs are now part of that legacy, a “hard to do” move, as he put it, but one he insists was necessary.

What comes next?

As negotiations continue, three scenarios loom large:

1. Trade Deal Compromise: India and the US may strike a face-saving agreement, lowering tariffs in exchange for gradual diversification away from Russian crude.

2. Escalation: If talks falter, New Delhi could retaliate with its own tariffs or strengthen energy ties with Moscow, deepening the rift.

3. Geopolitical Realignment: China and Russia could exploit the fallout, drawing India closer into their orbit — a nightmare scenario for Washington.

Let’s conclude with the following remarks

Trump calls his oil tariff move a “big deal.” And he is right — but not only for the reasons he claims. By imposing a unilateral 50% duty on India’s Russian oil imports, he has:

• Shaken US-India trust at a critical moment
• Triggered volatility in global energy markets
• Opened opportunities for rivals like China and Russia

For now, Trump insists that his friendship with Modi is “incredible” and that a trade deal is within reach. But as one Indian analyst put it: “Friendship is good — until fuel prices rise.”