Bihar’s 180-plus verdict: How only NewsDrum saw it coming

New Delhi: While most exit polls predicted a tight race or a modest majority in Bihar’s elections, NewsDrum stood alone in forecasting a landslide. It clearly stated that the winning side, be it the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan, would comfortably cross the 180-seat mark. 

As results rolled in on November 14, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) not only crossed that bar but surged past 200 seats out of 243, vindicating NewsDrum's bold call.

Unlike others that hedged their predictions, NewsDrum dismissed the idea of a photo finish. Its analysis rested on emerging voting patterns across India: a series of recent elections have seen clear, one-sided mandates rather than fractured results. From Gujarat (2022) and Uttar Pradesh (2022) to Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana in 2023, the electorate has consistently voted with decisive intent.

Even the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, despite being misread by most exit polls, produced a solid majority for the NDA. The trend was undeniable: Indian voters had grown increasingly clear-minded about who they wanted in power. Bihar 2025 was unlikely to break that pattern, and it didn’t.

Among the key insights in NewsDrum’s pre-result forecast was the significance of the NDA’s Rs 10,000 direct cash transfer scheme for women. Announced just ahead of the festive season, the scheme directly credited over one crore women with financial support. It was simple, tangible and effectively communicated. 

In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan’s last-minute promise of a Rs 30,000 payment, made days before polling, came too late to shift the narrative.

Women voted in large numbers and emerged as a decisive bloc. Ground reports confirmed that beneficiaries were not just appreciative but also active in mobilising support. The scheme turned into a multiplier, reinforcing existing goodwill toward the NDA.

But NewsDrum also made a broader point, schemes only work when voters are open to continuity. In Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana, even expansive welfare programs failed to protect incumbents from defeat. When voters seek change, freebies are seen as obligatory, not persuasive. 

Bihar was different. There was no mass anger against the government, and the welfare optics worked in favour of the incumbents.

What set NewsDrum’s coverage apart was its combination of data, observation and instinct. Exit polls averaged vote shares and projected moderate gains. NewsDrum looked deeper, at voters’ responses, late shifts in sentiment, and the tone of campaigning. 

It factored in momentum from events like the Red Fort blast between the two phases of polling, which potentially consolidated voter mood.

In India’s first-past-the-post system, a few percentage points can create a massive seat swing. That’s what happened in Rajasthan 2023, where a slim vote margin created a landslide win. Bihar’s verdict followed that arc.

Bihar has spoken, and NewsDrum heard it first.