Exclusive: Yogi govt misled Supreme Court on stubble burning, ICAR data shows

New Delhi: The Uttar Pradesh government’s claim of a “significant decline” in stubble burning, made before the Supreme Court earlier this month, is flatly contradicted by the Union government’s own satellite fire data.

The Rice Residue Fire Bulletins issued by ICAR–IARI’s CREAMS group up to 23 November 2025 show that:

• Uttar Pradesh’s paddy-residue fires are at their highest level in six years,
• The 20 districts showcased by the Yogi Adityanath government as having a “marked reduction” have, in fact, seen a sharp jump in incidents, and
• The four districts highlighted as having the “lowest” incidents – Etah, Kaushambi, Sitapur and Unnao – are nowhere near their real lows on the same official series.

At the same time, Punjab and Haryana – which are routinely blamed in NCR discourse – have cut stubble burning to less than one-tenth of their 2021 levels on the same ICAR dataset, while fires rise in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

What UP told the Supreme Court

As reported on November 13 by NewsDrum, the UP government informed the Supreme Court that stubble burning cases in the state had seen a “significant decline” due to strict instructions from the Chief Minister, real-time monitoring, penalties and district-level controls.

The state highlighted 20 districts – Mathura, Pilibhit, Saharanpur, Barabanki, Lakhimpur Kheri, Kaushambi, Etah, Hardoi, Jalaun, Fatehpur, Maharajganj, Kanpur Dehat, Jhansi, Mainpuri, Bahraich, Etawah, Gorakhpur, Aligarh, Unnao and Sitapur – claiming a “marked reduction” in farm fires.

Among them, it said, Etah, Kaushambi, Sitapur and Unnao had recorded the “lowest” incidents of stubble burning.

State-level picture

ICAR’s state-wise totals for paddy residue fires (15 September–23 November) for the four key states around Delhi are:

Key takeaways:

• Punjab has cut paddy-residue burning from 71,181 events in 2021 to just 5,088 in 2025, a drop of over 92%.
• Haryana has gone from 6,792 fires in 2021 to 617 in 2025, a reduction of over 90%.
• In Uttar Pradesh, the story runs in reverse. Fires rise from 3,376 (2021) to 5,622 (2025), up 66.5%, and are 30.8% higher than in 2024.
• Rajasthan, another BJP-ruled neighbour of Delhi, more than doubles its incident count over 2021 levels.

Across Punjab + Haryana + UP + Rajasthan, the combined 2025 tally is 14,131 fires, of which:

• UP alone accounts for 5,622 (~40%),
• Punjab for ~36%,
• Rajasthan for ~20%, and
• Haryana for under 5%.

So, on the Union government’s own satellite record, Uttar Pradesh, not Punjab or Haryana, is now the single largest source of paddy-residue fires in the Delhi neighbourhood in the 15 September-23 November window.

With Punjab and Haryana cutting stubble-burning sharply, the pressure on Delhi should have eased. Instead, a BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh has become the dominant nearby source of farm fires, pushing pollution into the capital. 

On one side is Rekha Gupta, the PM’s choice to run Delhi and answer for its air. On the other is Yogi Adityanath, sold as PM material. In the middle are Delhiites, breathing through a crisis created by a government that claims “decline” in court while its own satellite record shows “surge.”

NewsDrum has stayed relentless on this public health emergency, tracking the season through hard data and satellite records.

Also read: Exclusive: Data links Punjab's fire spikes to Delhi's pollution within 24 hours

Our reporting has repeatedly shown how governments and even constitutional bodies twist narratives on stubble burning, while citizens breathe the cost. 

The 20 showpiece districts: fires up 40% in one year

The affidavit did not stop at a broad claim. It cited 20 districts where, it said, stubble burning had “markedly” declined.

ICAR’s district-wise table for Uttar Pradesh (15 September-23 November, 2020-2025) tells a very different story.

UP paddy residue burning: 20 cited districts vs rest (15 Sept–23 Nov)

Combined fires in these 20 districts:

• 2020: 1,698
• 2021: 1,502
• 2022: 949
• 2023: 1,435
• 2024: 1,789
• 2025: 2,514

That means:

• The 20 “model” districts together have 2,514 fires in 2025, up from 1,789 in 2024 – a 40.5% increase in one year.
• Compared to 2021, incidents in these 20 districts are up 67.4%.
• This cluster accounts for nearly 45% of all stubble burning in Uttar Pradesh in 2025 (2,514 of 5,622 fires).

Far from being an island of “decline”, the districts highlighted to the Supreme Court have become the core of the problem.

Even at a granular level, the picture is blunt:

• 16 out of these 20 districts recorded more fires in 2025 than in 2024.
• Big spikes include Jalaun (0 → 326), Kanpur Dehat (137 → 256), Jhansi (241 → 335), Bahraich (34 → 104) and Gorakhpur (61 → 116).
• Only Mathura, Saharanpur, Barabanki and Aligarh show a fall in 2025 versus 2024 — and even there, the trend over 2021–2025 is mixed, not a clean decline.

The four 'lowest incidents' districts: 2025 is nowhere near the real low

The November 13 narrative went further, singling out Etah, Kaushambi, Sitapur and Unnao as districts with the “lowest” stubble burning incidents.

On the ICAR bulletin, their six-year trajectories (15 September–23 November) show a different pattern:

On this official series:

• Etah, Kaushambi and Sitapur had their lowest fires in 2022, not 2025. All three are well above those lows now.
• Unnao’s lowest season is 2021. Its 2025 tally is higher than 2022, 2023 and 2024, and only slightly below 2020.

Official data trashes affidavit

On the record of the Union government’s own ICAR bulletins up to 23 November 2025, three things are clear:

• There is no “significant decline” in stubble burning in Uttar Pradesh.
• UP’s total paddy residue fires are at a six-year high, up 66.5% over 2021 and 30.8% over 2024.
• The 20 districts highlighted to the Supreme Court are not an exception; they are a hotspot.

Their combined incidents are up 40.5% in one year, to their highest level in six years, and they contribute nearly 45% of UP’s stubble burning.

The four “lowest incidents” districts are not at their lowest levels in 2025.

Their true lows are in 2021–2022, and 2025 marks a clear reversal of those gains.

Also read: How Rekha Gupta failed PM Modi on Delhi’s toxic air

The data points to a state that has allowed fires to rise, especially in its western belt, while Punjab and Haryana are the ones that have actually brought numbers down.

For the Supreme Court that relies on affidavits to supervise pollution control, that gap between what is claimed and what the government’s own satellites record is not a technicality. On the ICAR numbers, Uttar Pradesh has misled the Court on the scale and geography of stubble burning, even as its fires – and Delhi’s AQI – continue to climb.